++++ Plate 00 · LTV and repeat rateCalculator
Free calculator · See your LTV with no signup

What is a customer actually worth over 12 months?

LTV is the most abused number in DTC: modeled on revenue, stretched over 36 months, used to justify CAC that never pays back. This tool builds it the honest way: 12-month lifetime orders times gross margin, with your repeat rate graded against your category's band. And a hint on timing while you're here: half of all repeat purchases happen inside the first 30 days.

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By Taylor Sicard · co-founded WIN Brands Group and scaled it past $100M · the retention math behind brands that compound instead of churn
The method behind the number
Honest LTV, category bands, and the second-order window.
Consumer Commerce
The LTV math brands get wrong
Revenue vs margin LTV, the 12-month window, and the category benchmarks this calculator grades against.
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Consumer Commerce
Subscription churn for DTC
If your revenue is subscription, churn is your LTV: the 3 to 5% monthly baseline and what moves it.
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Consumer Commerce
The max allowable CAC formula
Where this LTV goes next: the ceiling on what you can pay to acquire a customer.
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Method

How LTV and repeat rate are calculated

Three steps, all on a 12-month window. Lifetime orders = 1 + (repeat rate x average additional orders per repeating customer). Gross-margin LTV = AOV x gross margin x lifetime orders, because CAC gets paid out of margin, not revenue. Add your blended CAC and the result also grades LTV:CAC against the healthy range for your category: consumables 3.5:1 to 6:1, apparel 2:1 to 4:1, home goods 1.5:1 to 3:1. The 12-month CM-LTV targets work the same way: consumables 2.5 to 4x first-order contribution, apparel 1.8 to 3x, home 1.5 to 2.5x.

Repeat rate at or above your category bandConsumables 35-50%, apparel 20-30%, home 15-25%. LTV is real, spend against it.
Within 5 points below the bandFix the second-order window first, half of all repeat purchases happen inside the first 30 days.
Well below the bandYou have a first-order business, price CAC like there is no LTV.

Your lifetime-orders number carries straight into the max allowable CAC calculator, which turns this LTV into a spending ceiling, and the break-even ROAS calculator translates it into what your ads need to clear. All the free DTC calculators share these benchmarks and carry your AOV and margin forward.

Questions

Common questions

How do I calculate LTV for a DTC brand?
Twelve-month lifetime orders = 1 + (repeat rate x average additional orders per repeating customer). Multiply by AOV for revenue LTV, then by gross margin for the number that matters: gross-margin LTV. Model it on margin, not revenue, because you cannot spend revenue you never keep.
What is a good repeat rate for DTC?
It is category-dependent: consumables and CPG run 35 to 50%, apparel 20 to 30%, home goods and durables 15 to 25%. Judge yourself against your category's band, not a blended average that mixes supplements with sofas.
What is the difference between revenue LTV, gross-margin LTV, and CM-LTV?
Revenue LTV counts every dollar a customer spends. Gross-margin LTV keeps only what survives COGS and payment fees. CM-LTV goes a layer deeper and subtracts fulfilment, shipping, and returns too. Each layer is more honest than the last; CAC decisions should use a margin-based LTV at minimum.
What LTV:CAC ratio should I target?
3:1 on gross margin is the standard guardrail, but the healthy range shifts by category: consumables 3.5:1 to 6:1, apparel 2:1 to 4:1, home goods 1.5:1 to 3:1. The ranges reflect how much repeat behavior each category can bank on.
How fast should the second order come?
Fast. Half of all repeat purchases happen inside the first 30 days, so the post-purchase window does most of the work. If your second-order curve is still flat at day 45, more ad spend will not fix it: the post-purchase experience will.
Should subscription brands model LTV differently?
Yes. A subscription's LTV is monthly contribution divided by monthly churn, and 3 to 5% monthly churn is the DTC subscription baseline. The repeat-rate model in this calculator suits one-off purchase brands; if most of your revenue is subscription, churn is your LTV.